Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

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Bill
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#121 Post by Bill »

Calzones wrote:I decided its too big of a risk for me to pay 12M+ a year for a closer if it doesnt work out.
Yeah, that is definitely a concern. I was fortunate to be in a position where I could, if absolutely necessary, pay him that to be a closer (I needed both). I also had the incentive that if I didn't sign him, it looked like he might go to my chief rival. I was pretty motivated, if only to play keep away.
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#122 Post by Bill »

A Look at Spring Training 2022
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
March 26, 2022


Hello again, Warrior fans. Hopefully everyone has had a great winter full of ice fishing and staring at their feet (well, at least the introverts anyway...). But enough of that inanity...it's time for baseball. We all know guys like David Uribes and Andres Hernandez will be key components of our journey to potential mediocrity. But this spring training has several key battles for spots on the active roster. Among those are:

1) The Fifth Starter
Newcomers Julian Thomas and Luis Nieves are expected to join veteran Warriors Davis Sutherland and Xavier Mota in the starting rotation in 2022. The fifth starter is not so cut and dried. Last year, the team juggled several players in the role, most notably young knuckleballer Ricardo Aguilar. However, a 3-12 record with 5.16 ERA from last year doesn't exactly win you any bonus points the next spring. Let's call him Plan F. The team has given prospects Paul Norris, Robinson Herrera, and Matt Allison each a chance to win the role. Norris gave up 9 walks in 2 spring starts and has since been sent to minor league camp to start the year in AAA Madison. Allison also promptly gave up 6 hits and 4 walks in his first spring start...uh, not so hot either. The only one not to embarrass himself has been Herrera. He has sprinkled 15 hits and 6 runs over his 3 starts, but at least has shown an ability to throw strikes and not give up the long ball. Herrera seems like Plan A at this point, but the team may continue to look at other options before they need a fifth starter in the second week of the season.

2) The Sixth Infielder
The starting infield of Harris, Torres, Hernandez, and Uribes seems pretty set in stone, particularly with Torres' decent spring at the plate and in the field. Shortstop Marcos Martinez and his plus-plus glove will continue to play the uber-utility role. The final infielder seems less certain. The team likes toolsy prospect Jeff Prat, particularly after a decent winter ball showing this offseason. But the lefty Canadian slugger doesn't really have a true defensive position and hasn't displayed much power this spring (.300 avg but with 0 HR). Plus keeping him would basically leave them with only one backup infielder. The safe bet seems to be journeyman utility player Bill O'Keefe, who would give the team both a glove and a speedy pair of legs off the bench. O'Keefe is 10-for-25 with a couple steals this spring. Other increasingly sucky options include MI Johnny Oliver (8-for-23, mostly late in spring games) and CI Lou Holland (7-for-26 with a bit more pop this spring).

3) The Bullpen
The team acquired CL Tapper Gonzalez this offseason from New Jersey and he has performed as expected thus far (0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 5 outings). Bullpen holdovers like Craig Taylor and Gravy Swanson are expected to continue to get significant innings this season, as should resignee Nelson Ortiz. From there a lot could happen. Youngsters Matt Nielsen (7 BB in 7 apps) and Keith Watson (9 R, 11 H in 5.2 IP this spring) have not pitched well and don't seem to be likely to make the team. The team is still considering other fresh faces like Jim Ball (2.84 ERA in 6.1 IP, but 5 BB) and Thurman Collins (3.27 ERA in 11 IP) as well as many of the fifth starter candidates. These decisions will likely come down to the very end with many changes expected throughout the season. This is not a playoff bullpen people.

(Playoffs?!? Are we talkin' about playoffs?!?!? Playoffs????)

Did I mention the season is almost here? After that, only a few short months until spring. I can't wait...
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#123 Post by roncollins »

;-D
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#124 Post by Bill »

The Sutherland Conundrum
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
July 4, 2022


BOOM! BANG! POP!!!!

Happy Independence Day to all the red-white-and-blue Warrior fans in the reading audience (except cousin Larry, I'm not wishing you well until you return my fishing flies from that last trip....). All is well on the baseball front after a key sweep of the Codgers this week (thank you very much Miguel Angel Galvez!).

Off the field, the Warriors do face a bit of a decision. The veteran starter Davis Sutherland just made his 16th start of the year last week. His contract contains a vesting clause for 2023 - $16 million next year if he makes 20 starts in 2022. The team seem inclined to let him continue to be a starting pitcher and pay him the dough. But is that a smart move...

Yes for Davis
He has been a remarkably consistent starter over the years. He still throws 95+ on most days and in general keeps the ball in the park. His 12 W, 3.11 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP last year was among the best stats of his career. And to be honest, he is one of the most accomplished pitchers in Warrior history (though I know, the bar is practically laying on the ground it's so low).

Get Rid of This Bum!
K rates last four years: 9, 7.1, 5.1, 5.4
Not a favorable trend, though he has primarily been able to pitch through the inability to fan batters at the same rate as before. But 5 K/9 is not a recipe for success in general. He also only throws quality starts in < 40% of his games, often due to short outings. He stresses the bullpen into getting 10+ outs often. Not to mention, there are other options in AAA (Mota, Herrera, Allison) primed to take over for him in the rotation right now that cost $500k.

After a rough April, Sutherland has settled down into being Mr. Reliable again (ERA around 3.50 over the last two months). I think that bounce back has probably bought him another year in the Warrior rotation. But I think a smart GM (though clearly heartless to Grinch-esque proportions) would move him to the bullpen, allow his contract to elapse, and spend that $16M better in 2023.

I'm reserve the right to say "I told you so" later.
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#125 Post by Bill »

Now Warming Up in the Warriors Bullpen: Davis Sutherland
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
July 31, 2022


Well folks, the Duluth Warriors have done the improbable, the implausible, the unimaginable, the unthinkable. Davis Sutherland has been removed from the starting rotation and will work out of the bullpen, ostensibly to avoid the $16 million PEBAbuck option for 2023 that vests with his 20th start of the season.

Sure, his 19 starts so far this year have not been particularly spectacular (4-6, 4.13 ERA). But I never thought the Warriors would actually publicly humiliate one the best pitchers in franchise history over a one season contract extension. What a kick in the :angry-cussingblack: !!!!

Boo on you, Bong family, Boo on you!!!

Of course, Sutherland has said nothing publicly and went out and pitched 6.2 shutout innings in relief this week (a rare bright spot this week). Thanks for classing up the joint Davis! His replacement in the rotation, Xavier Mota, didn't make it out of the third inning against Crystal Lake - Brilliant!

.500, here we come.....
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#126 Post by Borealis »

I remember we did the same with Provost in 2018 - to avoid vesting an option, only to have an injury force our hand and move him back. As 2019 unfolded, it was a good thing!!!

Of course, Sutherland has 90 GS and about 400 IP more than Provost, despite being only 7 months older...
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#127 Post by Bill »

Early Offseason Warrior Roundup
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
December 1, 2022


Welcome intrepid Warrior fans! A grand time of the year is upon us - the holidays to celebrate, eggnog to be drunk, and most importantly ice fishing is just around the corner. But a true Warrior fan (yes, that's both of you reading this blog) knows the PEBA free agency period is when winning teams are assembled. The crack staff at Unga Bunga of course has the latest and greatest. On to the news...

Sutherland Comings and Goings
As expected, veteran starting pitcher Davis Sutherland fell one start short of his vesting option in 2022. The team had tried to negotiate an extension after the season, apparently coming to a handshake agreement on potential terms for a three year deal around $15 million. But the PEBA league office vetoed the deal as it did not meet league contract rules. No appeal is expected to be filed. Instead, the team is expected to offer a deal to Sutherland in free agency. Unga Bunga was unable to gauge interest from other teams in Sutherland's services.

Free Agency Rumor Mill
The team has noted it would like to upgrade its offensive output at second base. Also, Sutherland's spot in the rotation will need to be filled, either by Sutherland or an alternate target. The Bong/McKenzie front office is playing it close to the vest on starting pitching. It seems obvious that they would be interested in top FA pitchers like Clayton Lewis or former Warrior Carlos Fernandez though. A source close to the team has told Unga Bunga that the team is quite interested in former Featherhead Raul Medina, who would be a great fit at second base. The organization is also lacking in catchers after letting veteran backups like Graham Day leave after the season.

Making in Rain
Ace pitcher Julian Thomas won his arbitration case this season and will make north of $15 million in his final year of cost control, setting up what could be a tense offseason of negotiations. The fact that he went to arbitration at all is an ill omen at best. Unga Bunga has learned that Thomas and his agent are asking for an 8 year extension near $200 million. That would seem to be a tough pill to swallow for the Warrior budget, but 200 strikeout pitchers are rare birds. Stay tuned.
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#128 Post by Denny »

Warriors wrote:Sutherland Comings and Goings
As expected, veteran starting pitcher Davis Sutherland fell one start short of his vesting option in 2022. The team had tried to negotiate an extension after the season, apparently coming to a handshake agreement on potential terms for a three year deal around $15 million. But the PEBA league office vetoed the deal as it did not meet league contract rules. No appeal is expected to be filed. Instead, the team is expected to offer a deal to Sutherland in free agency. Unga Bunga was unable to gauge interest from other teams in Sutherland's services.
It helps Duluth's cause that Sutherland is one of the dozen free agents who is compensation-eligible, meaning another team which signs him would lose their first-round draft pick (if it is outside the top ten picks) and Duluth would receive a supplemental round pick.
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#129 Post by roncollins »

Codgers wrote:It helps Duluth's cause that Sutherland is one of the dozen free agents who is compensation-eligible, meaning another team which signs him would lose their first-round draft pick (if it is outside the top ten picks) and Duluth would receive a supplemental round pick.
Aye, but if it's within those top ten picks ... and ours is #9, I think ... hmmm ... :)

Or someone could trade for it, even. :) :) :)
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#130 Post by Bill »

Happy New Year Quick Hitters
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
January 1, 2023


Happy New Year, my amigos. Welcome to the first 2023 Unga Bunga installment. I've hit upon a sweet pike pond this season, so today will just be quick hitters...

Davis Sutherland's appearance on the 2023 Warriors roster is still, shall we say, questionable. Apparently his agent has broken off contract talks again with the team. Who knows, maybe that will change again next month. Stay tuned....The team has signed Stan Holmes for a one year contract worth a bit over $6 million. He is expected to catch once a week and maybe DH once a week, both likely against lefties...The team neither lost anyone nor gained anyone in the Rule 5 draft last month...Apparently extension discussions are continuing for ace Julian Thomas, though the teams are still about $20 million apart according to one source close to the team...Warrior season tickets are on a record pace with the tam announcing it has sold 6500 units through the end of 2022, putting them near an expected 20,000 tickets by the start of the season...Ed Emery has returned from a stint in Winter Ball. The 23yo international sensation apparently learned a changeup in his extra training time this season. We'll see how effective it can be against PEBA level hitters in a short while...Hey Warriors, you listening? Raul Medina still has no uniform to wear in 2023. 5 WAR would look pretty sweet at 2B this year. Don't make me write another of those I told you so blogs.
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#131 Post by Bill »

Warriors Update: January 2023
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
January 31, 2023


Who'll Stop the Rain
Not much rain in Northern Minnesota this month, more like 10 feet of snow. But Julian Thomas is here to stay through 2028 after signing a 5 year contract extension worth a guaranteed $112 million with an additional vesting option for 2029. That's a lot of dough for a 29-year old, but aces don't grow on trees, particularly in the Great White North. Thomas went only 9-8 last season, but had a 3.08 ERA while generating 5.4 WAR with superb rate stats.

Holmes Cookin'
The Warriors signed former Sandgnat Stan Holmes to a $6.3 million contract this month. Holmes is expected to platoon with incumbent star Miguel Angel Galvez while providing much needed veteran leadership. Holmes could also see a few starts at DH against lefties. The 34-year old backstop hit only .169 last season, but still maintains a good batting eye and can knock one deep if you lay it over the heart of the plate. Welcome to Duluth Stan!

Ticket Sales
Ticket sales have continued to be strong through January. The Holmes and Thomas signings have boosted sales through the winter months, doubling to nearly 11000 season tickets in January. Projections still on target for around 20000 season tickets.

No Funky Cold Medina Here
The Featherheads announced that infielder Raul Medina will resign with Florida, a 5-year contract worth nearly $100 million. Medina would have looked nice in green and white, but $100 million plus a draft pick is probably a little steep. Team sources also say that the budget situation wasn't likely to allow resigning Thomas and another big long term free agent deal. Given the choices, Thomas was the good move.

Along those lines, there won't be any Funky Cold Davis Sutherland in Duluth this season either. The former Warrior starting pitcher signed a 3-yeal deal with the Lupin/Toyama franchise for around $15million. Rumors are the Warriors could still sign one more pitcher this offseason to replace the hole left by Sutherland entering free agency. Stay tuned.
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#132 Post by Hitmen »

Happy to see Rainmaker is sticking around long term. I wasn't thrilled we had to slowly break it down and move on as he was one of my best players ever drafted I feel. He gave the Hitmen their first pitcher of the year award.

;-D

Looking forward to continuing to see him do well!
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#133 Post by Bill »

Yeah, I was a little worried when his initial stance was 8y/$200M when the offseason started. Luckily we were able to whittle him down a little.
Our budget was a problem too. Fortunately we gained a little room in the projected budget with some FI gains. If I would have anticipated that, I would have bought some FI with CP.
Worked out in the end. Glad to have him aboard too :smile:
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#134 Post by Bill »

2023 Spring Rewind
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
March 27, 2023


Empty DL = Successful Spring!
One of the key goals of any spring training is to not get hurt. Nobody got hurt. Warriors 1, PEBA Injury Gods 0. :bang:

New Contract = Happy Pitcher
Ace Julian Thomas signed a hefty contract extension this offseason. Sometimes that can lead to a let down or lack of effort. Not apparently with Rainmaker, who is having about as good a spring as could be possible. Four starts has led to 15 baserunners, 2 runs, and 29 strikeouts in 16 innings. Keep it up.

Prat Struggles = Ticket to Madison?
The primary designated hitter job was basically Jeff Prat's to lose, particularly against right-handed pitchers. Prat had hit 10 homers, including a 3-homer game in September, in the final couple months last year. But a 2-for-22 finish to the spring has this blogologist wondering if some other guys may snipe some plate appearances from Prat until he gets going. Flint Butler and Juan Rincon seem the obvious candidates to play more. With an option year remaining, could Prat even end up at AAA Madison to start the year? Anything is possible.

Starting Rotation
Thomas, Luis Nieves, and 'Peppers' Emery seem to be locks in the starting rotation. Nieves bounced back from a poor first spring outing to give up 3 hits and 1 run over his next 12 innings of work. Prospects Paul Norris and Emery (with his new changeup) are still a work in progress, but the leash will be a mile long with these guys. Norris put up four impressive goose eggs in his last start; hopefully a sign of good things to come. One would guess that 15-game winner from a year ago Ricardo Aguilar would be the final man in the rotation, but his last start (2 IP, 6 R) was a total stinker. Veteran Avery Carson has pitched decent but won't likely ever be dominating at this point in his career. New manager Eduardo Francisco will have a tough call here. I'd give the slight nod to Carson, but it's easy to see both of these guys making starts at some point in 2023.

BNN is High on Life (or something)
The Baseball News Network released its preseason predictions on March 6th. Of note, it picked Duluth to finish with 98 wins and in first place of the Great Lakes. This is the same team that struggled to 81 wins last year. Earth to Major Tom....Come in, Major Tom....

And Last but Not Least....
Happy (slightly belated) Big 5-0 to the Warriors general manager. Where are the Instagram pictures? (I know, what happens in Bong Water I, stays in Bong Water I)
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Re: Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

#135 Post by Borealis »

Warriors wrote:Empty DL = Successful Spring!
One of the key goals of any spring training is to not get hurt. Nobody got hurt. Warriors 1, PEBA Injury Gods 0. :bang:

And Last but Not Least....
Happy (slightly belated) Big 5-0 to the Warriors general manager. Where are the Instagram pictures? (I know, what happens in Bong Water I, stays in Bong Water I)
Beware the karma - there's four games left... :-o

HBD Bill!!!

(and where are those predictions? I can never find them...
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