The Baseball Bureaucracy - Arlington's Blog

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DanD
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May 2024 - Roster Shake-up

#31 Post by DanD »

May 20th, 2024

After a month-and-a-half of watching the 'Crats struggle to tread water, I decided a roster shake up was in order. To me it seems like the pitching and defense were in a good place, but the offense has been dreadful. Rob Raines has been hot-and-cold on his road back from a major knee injury, Pat Barry has been sub par, and my pair of LF sluggers have struggled to stay healthy.

The goal is to sacrifice a little defense while trying to bolster the offense any way I can. In recent seasons, the team tends to have low batting average, but high on-base and slugging percentages. However, the team average this season is ridiculously low coupled with (and helping to cause) a poor team on-base percentage. I've swapped out some players off to horrendous starts offensively with some fresh blood to see if that will help. I mean, the players I swapped out were doing so poorly even replacement level players would likely hit better. The trick will be to balance any offense gain with hits to the defense.

23-year-old catching prospect Marvin Hansen was called up so I could get a look at how he fares in the majors. He's got some plate discipline issues, but perhaps he can make enough contact to make up for that. I've been getting some complaints about selfish players causing problems in the club house and I suspect Samuel Kettley might be one of the main culprits. He's not been carrying his weight offensively, so I don't think it could hurt to try other options at catcher.

Minor league journeyman Rusty Foster will man center field for now because Dan Simpson apparently takes some horrendous routes that his speed can't make up for and has been atrocious at the plate. Jorge Guavara has turned back into a pumpkin sooner than I would have liked and may be losing a step in center due to age. Another case of "anyone but the incumbents is an improvement". Which is kind of depressing.

2B Bill Gibbs will be given a chance to sink or swim - he's been rated as a decent prospect but has battled injuries and has been ineffective in previous call ups. He's 27-year-old now though, so he's likely 'done cooking'. The good news is that he was a monster in AAA this season, posting a 201 wRC+. I'm hoping that maybe he's finally healthy and figured something out, but I'm also a little worried about his defense. I plan on giving him a good long look, health permitting.

SS Jud McCauley was also called up to fill the utility infielder role. He has trouble making contact but will take some walks and can walk into a home run now and then. He's got some defensive flexibility though he isn't really elite at any one position due to average-ish range. He's pretty fast though, so he'll probably be a useful bench player who can't be any worse than the player(s) he's replacing. He also seems to be liked in the club house which might help with the slight team chemistry problem their having. Neat fact: Jud hit 34 homers between AA and AAA back in 2022.
===

After one week, the jury is still out. Rains and Barry vanished so the offense still didn't do much without the cornerstones producing. Motoyuki Hatsutori was frozen by an overturned liquid nitrogen tanker and shattered, getting torched for seven earned runs. Of the seven hits allowed, only one was for extra bases (a double) so I'm slightly worried the reconfigured infield defense let him down a bit. He's definitely due a BABIP correction but I'm wondering if the air tight infield defense I blew up was keeping that down for him. Otherwise, I think the pitching was still pretty solid - if only the bats would wake up....

Going forward, I'm going to give Hansen some more playing time behind the dish. If he's at least somewhat competent, I think Kettley's days as a Bureaucrat are numbered...
Dan DiVincenzo
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Will Pitching Carry the Bureaucrats in the PEC?

#32 Post by DanD »

The Arlington Bureaucrats are on their way to making their third PEC appearance after a surprising sweep of Florida Featherheads, a regular playoff nemesis. The Aurora Borealis’ streak of PEC wins ends at three with Crystal Lake representing the Sovereign League this year after defeating the Shin Seiki Evas in six games.

During the League Championship series, the ‘Crats had half of their starting infield return from the DL and the offense promptly exploded for an uncharacteristic .811 OPS against Florida’s excellent pitching. I’m not sure if that’s a trend I expect to continue – the line-up is built with a focus on defense and not offense. If the ‘Crats are going to have to rely on their pitching staff if they are going to take home a second Rodriguez Cup. Motoyuki Hatsutori has been dominant in his first PEBA playoff action and Tsuramatsu Ito has gotten hot at the right time. Ito is a quality start machine but at times can go on impressive runs and he’s timed this one perfectly.

Manuel Pacheco’s performance has actually been pretty poor this post season. He was the second best starter in the rotation during the regular season, but I think he may just be out of gas at this point. Rookie Manager Preston Henley will stick with the power-lefty, presumably because he has the stuff to go out and throw a shut out on any given night.

Fred Benjamin has been an interesting player for Arlington in 2024. He signed a massive $128,000,000 contract with the team in the off-season that has been panned as an overpay. Indeed, his 2024 performance gave credence to this line of thinking (14-13 record, 3.81 ERA) but his secondary numbers tell a different story. While probably still an overpay to some degree, Benjamin owned a 3.14 FIP and his quality start percentage was in line with his career. I noticed throughout the season Benjamin seemed a bit streaky – going on dominant stretches only to look lost out there the next month. Henley stood by his veteran southpaw and was rewarded with a two-hit shut out against Florida. Even though he’s 34-years-old, Benjamin still has plenty of fight in him.

On the other side of the ball, Pat Barry has pretty much carried the team through the post-season with a triple slash of .333/.356/.619. After leading the league in OPS during the regular season, Old Man Rob Raines has been pretty quiet since. However, even at 39 he’s a feared presence at the plate sporting a new fiery red beard belying the explosive-yet-controlled power behind it. Make a mistake pitch and you’re going to get burned, it says. Or, you know, maybe it’s because he’s almost 40 years-old and can’t be bothered to shave every day.

In any case, I expect we’re in for an excellent PEC
Dan DiVincenzo
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Arlington Bureaucrats: Makeover Edition

#33 Post by DanD »

Thanks to excellent starting pitching and a healthy amount of luck, the Bureaucrats are only a half game out of first place heading into the second half of July. The offense has been mediocre and the bullpen has been a train wreck but the starting staff has carried the team.

Thankfully, the front office has finally decided to do something about bolstering the roster a bit - likely because the bullpen has been a special kind of terrible the last few weeks. They haven't made any high-impact moves, but the goal appears to be to just get some competent arms in the bullpen without breaking the bank (or farm system).

RHP Junior Cook (6.42 ERA, 164 FIP-)
Okay, this one might be more of a gamble - a gamble that a change of scenery might 'fix' Junior. Just last season Cook won 15 games and owned a neat 2.85 ERA. So what the heck happened? Dingers, apparently! His 2025 HR/9IP rate is over TWICE his career rate. Add that to a plummeting strikeout rate and you have the recipe for a pitcher who looks lost out there. His one appearance after moving to a mop-up role wasn't very encouraging - three earned runs allowed in one inning of work. Arlington surrendered a 5th round pick to acquire the former 12th overall selection of the 2016 draft in a pretty textbook example of 'buy low' for low risk/high reward. If it turns out that something is seriously wrong with Cook, he's a free agent after the 2025 season anyways so the club won't really feel bad cutting their losses by releasing him. In the mean time he's a potent arm that will be given a serious look as a reliever for the first time since 2021 and can be considered emergency rotation depth if the need arises.
RHP Michael Ayers (1.93 ERA, 77 FIP-)
Ah, that's more like it. Ayers has had an interesting career that started in 2012 with West Virginia. After a rocky rookie season he wound up being a solid starting pitcher, making his first All-Star team in 2015 as a 26-year-old. He finished that season with a sterling 2.61 ERA but his success as a starter was fleeting. Four mediocre seasons later, he was having a decent season with Florida when he tore his UCL and was eventually shipped to Kalamazoo. After recovering he made a dozen average-ish starts for the Badgers to close out the 2019 season. In 2020 he transitioned to the bullpen and put up an unthinkable 2.16 ERA even though his raw stuff and secondary numbers weren't great. He apparently junkballed his way into weak contact as his BABIP was an absurdly low .246. Next season he signed with Duluth and his K/BB actually improved, but the results just weren't there this time earning him a 4.41 ERA and a trade back to Kalamazoo. His K/BB regressed but the magic returned - a month later he made his second All-Star team and put up a 1.04 ERA for the Badgers. Ayers then played for three different teams in three years, never finding the success from his first two tenures with Kalamazoo (despite a third term there in 2023). Hanging on as a replacement level arm, he signed a $1,500,000 one-year deal with the Bears in 2025 just to keep playing ball. Amazingly, at 36 he found the magic once again (and then some). His strikeout rate and K/BB ratio are the best of his long career and for the first time it might not just be smoke-and-mirrors responsible for this success. Yes, this BABIP of .252 is well below his career average but the 'Crats tend to field a pretty solid defense so there is hope he can maintain some level of success for the rest of 2025.
RHP Alfonso Ochoa (3.52 ERA, 97 FIP-)
No offence to Mr. Ochoa, but he's probably the least interesting of the new arms added to the Arlington bullpen. Which isn't a a bad thing at all! He's been a solid reliever since entering the league in 2018 with some BABIP fueled flashes of brilliance. His current 2025 ERA is right in line with his career average of 3.52, though his K/BB ratio has been a little out of whack and he's given up far more hits than usual thanks to a .355 BABIP. A market correction for both will likely mean he'll do just fine for Arlington's 'pen, which is really all they need at the moment. Interesting fact: Ochoa spent the first five seasons of his career with division rival West Virginia - perhaps he and Ayers were brought on board for some behind-the-scenes intelligence as well!
C Gerald Murdoch (85 wRC+, 1.3 WAR)
Youngster Marvin Hansen hasn't been terrible behind the plate this season, but it definitely wouldn't hurt to get some veteran help and depth at the position. This is Murdoch's 7th campaign as a backstop in the PEBA, serving as a part timer for a majority of his career. He excels at shutting down the opposing teams' running game (45% RTO rate in 2025) and actually has some power when facing wrong-handed pitchers. He'll definitely see a majority (if not all) of the playing time against left-handers and will likely serve as Arlington's main catcher. Hansen will likely still get some starts down the stretch, but Murdoch hopefully serves to give the position a slight bump in production on both sides of the ball and gives the club some starting depth at the very least.
Sure, the shake up isn't the most exciting in franchise history (or, you know, just in general) but a bullpen overhaul was definitely in order. Even just shoring up a glaring weakness might be enough to keep them in the hunt.
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Re: The Baseball Bureaucracy - Arlington's Blog

#34 Post by Duane »

Murdoch was a great compliment for Szema for many seasons - hated to see him go but there are kids that need playing time.
Duane

all but one season .... PEBA

Even though we fell short against Duluth in 2026 ... and SS in 2027 and 2029 8-o
IL still RULES!!!!!
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