2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

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Borealis
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2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#1 Post by Borealis »

They're baaaack... Not that they ever did leave. As per the Constitution and PEBA Tradition, it is time to look at the Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments for the 2028 season.

A little bit of History - as I understand it, others may know more, or recall more, but... In a nutshell, John Rodriguez developed the concept and had a system that used the in-game GM Score as a means of calculating chances for a teams changes based on a detailed analysis of 6-years worth of scores (problem one: what of new GMs) and trends within those 6-years. Basically it was a bit of a crapshoot - literally, as dice were involved - in the true JR manner! Theoretically, every team had a chance for change. When John left us, and Trader Matt took over, Matt created his own system, and when Matt left, and Nigel became Commish (I believe that's in essence the timeline), I am uncertain what happened then - Nigel can chime in on this. Perhaps there was a period where these changes did not occur. Then along came Morris, who posted in this Thread the following after the 2025 season:
Morris wrote:"These have not been processed since 2022, largely because Matt's scoring system departed with him. I've put together a formula of my own to adhere to the spirit of the rules set out in the constitution."
Who know's what Trader Matt's system was, but sifting through the crumbs in the above link, and actually communicating with Morris recently, I have come to understand the methods in the system he developed. Where JR's system used game generated scores (of a calculated nature that is a mystery) and then created a 'game of chance', in a sense, Morris' system was based more on the hard data of a season and past results. Different systems, neither necessarily a wrong approach, but I do see the value of what we've most recently done.

A refresher, as quoted from the Constitution:
Constitution wrote:
  • A team’s performance has the potential to affect its fan loyalty and market size. Since expectations are different in different markets, each team will be reviewed based on the expectations for their market. Teams with the largest markets and largest budgets will have the greatest expectations. Teams in smaller markets with smaller budgets will have lesser expectations. Teams will be awarded or penalized based on how they fared against those expectations.
  • The team that exceeds expectations by the greatest amount will receive a market size increase. The next 4 teams who most exceeded expectations will see a fan loyalty increase.
  • The team that performs the worst against expectations will see a market size decrease. The next 4 teams who most faltered against expectations will see a fan loyalty decrease.
  • Expectations will be based on market size, team budget, playoff appearances in the last ten seasons, and team record over the last 5 seasons. Points are awarded/subtracted based on team record, place in division, playoff appearance, and winning a championship.
  • A minimum of 2 years must pass between fan loyalty changes, and a minimum of 3 years must pass between market size changes. Winning a PEBA championship makes a team exempt from market size/fan loyalty drops for the next 3 years.
To my knowledge, Morris made adjustments in 2025. The link above shows him starting the process for 2026, but there is no indication that he finished the process - though his spreadsheet he sent me shows final calculations. Considering how the end of the 2027 season went, and the confusion leading to Morris' resignation, I think it's fair to assume nothing happened in 2027.

Since two years have passed since there have been any loyalty changes, all teams are eligible for this adjustment. None of the teams that received a Market Size adjustment in 2025-26 are inline for that in 2028. We will be adding the additional clause to the Constitution: "1st year GMs will be exempt from penalties."

Adjustments will be determined following the playoffs (and they have), and will (likely) be announced live at this years Winter Meetings. Timing of the adjustments are still being discussed. I will post the full league-wide rankings later in this forum.

Discuss as needed...
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#2 Post by Vic »

So, Mike, is there still some element of chance involved (dice rolls or whatever), or do you strictly follow the expectations formula?
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#3 Post by DrewV »

Mike, regarding the constitution, is there any consideration given to AI changes before the evaluation? Duluth will be exempt this year (1st year GM and won PEC in 26), but as a hypothetical: my FL dropped this year. Would I technically be at risk of a second, manual drop if I met the league requirements? Or are AI adjustments included?
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#4 Post by Borealis »

Claymores wrote:So, Mike, is there still some element of chance involved (dice rolls or whatever), or do you strictly follow the expectations formula?
No chance, purely data driven...
Warriors wrote:Mike, regarding the constitution, is there any consideration given to AI changes before the evaluation? Duluth will be exempt this year (1st year GM and won PEC in 26), but as a hypothetical: my FL dropped this year. Would I technically be at risk of a second, manual drop if I met the league requirements? Or are AI adjustments included?
That's an interesting question - and more to the point, is there a place where those change are track in-game? A point for discussion amongst the board. Thank you for bringing it up!

You will be exempt, and spoiler alert - it's a good thing. Your work trying to get Duluth solvent was a considering factor to adding the new language, as to not immediately penalize a GM for the mess they may have inherited. Next season would be a different story. For what it's worth, if the 2026 changes did go into effect, the Market Size change you otherwise would have been in line for would have offset the gain from Duluth's title.
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#5 Post by Alleghenies »

We should keep note about past owners that have put teams in the position that Duluth was put in.
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#6 Post by DrewV »

I recieved a notification from my owner when the season ended

As for the new clause regarding rookie GMs, I especially appreciate the rule. There's quite a bit of forehead-slapping when I review the 2028 transaction log, even with the books balanced.
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#7 Post by Borealis »

Alleghenies wrote:We should keep note about past owners that have put teams in the position that Duluth was put in.
Well, Duluth is an interesting. I think Mark had anticipated things happening differently, coming off a title - probably looking to build on that momentum. Got a little (ok, maybe a bit more than little) over-extended. It happens. Same thing has finally caught up to me...
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#8 Post by DrewV »

Got a little (ok, maybe a bit more than little) over-extended. It happens. Same thing has finally caught up to me...
Yeah, it can take a turn south fast. No blame on past GMs from my corner! Duluth actually played about 8 games above preseason predictions this year, too...not that the fans are particularly consoled by that...
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#9 Post by Alleghenies »

Borealis wrote:
Alleghenies wrote:We should keep note about past owners that have put teams in the position that Duluth was put in.
Well, Duluth is an interesting. I think Mark had anticipated things happening differently, coming off a title - probably looking to build on that momentum. Got a little (ok, maybe a bit more than little) over-extended. It happens. Same thing has finally caught up to me...
Yes but he did it to Seoul in LRS too and left.
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#10 Post by Borealis »

The 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments have been calculated and will be added in during today's sim. As stated above, they are a data-based process, developed by the previous Commish and one I feel has sound philosophy behind it. The idea is a team goes into a season with Expectations, and those are based on Market size (larger Market, more expectations), Budget size (spend more money, more is expected), and your record over the past 5-seasons and play-off appearances over the past 10-seasons - playoff spots carry a little more fan hope over the long-term. A team's results are measure against League averages to create an Expectation score. Like-wise, a team is graded on their current performance - in essence, did you meet expectations? A performance score is determined similarly to the Expectation score, using 2028 Final Record, Division Standing and Playoff finish (all teams receive a minimal score of 1). The difference between Performance and Expectation is your score. Below are the results:
2028 Performance Changes.png
Not surprisingly, the teams that beat Expectations the most were our 2028 Surprise Stories: PEC Winner Fargo, Rising Sun Giant Slayer Neo-Tokyo and the biggest story, the Scottish. Rounding out the top 5 are West Virginia and Havana. Fargo will receive an increase in Market Size, while NT, SCO, WV and HAV will all get a boost in Fan Loyalty.

At the other end of the spectrum, the teams who failed the most at meeting expectations, or whose performance was the poorest were (in inverse order) Duluth, Crystal Lake, Amsterdam, Kentucky and Yuma. Duluth and Amsterdam, run by first time GM's, will be exempt this time around (and Duluth already suffered an in-game Loyalty drop as it is). Yuma, who also received an in-game Loyalty drop, will also be exempt - as a double-whammy is frowned upon. That leaves Kentucky and Crystal Lake as teams who will take a loss of Loyalty.

Fargo is exempt from future Market changes (+/-) for 3-seasons - both by rule and as Champion. NT, SCO, WV and HAV will be exempt from Loyalty changes (+/-) for 2-seasons. Due to their New GM exemptions, both Amsterdam and Duluth will be eligible next season for changes, while Yuma, Kentucky and Crystal Lake will be exempt from further changes (+/-) for 2-seasons.
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#11 Post by Coqui »

Maxwell Smart voice/

Missed it by that much.

/Maxwell Smart voice
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#12 Post by Vic »

Longshoremen wrote:Maxwell Smart voice/

Missed it by that much.

/Maxwell Smart voice

Ha! Well, at least you've got your shoe phone ...
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#13 Post by Borealis »

Claymores wrote:
Longshoremen wrote:Maxwell Smart voice/

Missed it by that much.

/Maxwell Smart voice
Ha! Well, at least you've got your shoe phone ...
And he's getting internet on it - but is it truly wireless if it has laces?
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Re: 2028 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments

#14 Post by Nigel »

Borealis wrote:They're baaaack... Not that they ever did leave. As per the Constitution and PEBA Tradition, it is time to look at the Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments for the 2028 season.

A little bit of History - as I understand it, others may know more, or recall more, but... In a nutshell, John Rodriguez developed the concept and had a system that used the in-game GM Score as a means of calculating chances for a teams changes based on a detailed analysis of 6-years worth of scores (problem one: what of new GMs) and trends within those 6-years. Basically it was a bit of a crapshoot - literally, as dice were involved - in the true JR manner! Theoretically, every team had a chance for change. When John left us, and Trader Matt took over, Matt created his own system, and when Matt left, and Nigel became Commish (I believe that's in essence the timeline), I am uncertain what happened then - Nigel can chime in on this. Perhaps there was a period where these changes did not occur. Then along came Morris, who posted in this Thread the following after the 2025 season:

Yes, I’m afraid this did fall a bit into disrepair during my time as Commish. Matt had taken his system and a lot of Knowledge with him and we struggled to keep the PEBA going let alone tweak the out of game systems. I’m glad everyone’s managed to turn it round though
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