That is one way to interpret that deal. Here is another:Transmitters wrote:Genius is perhaps too strong of a word. But maybe not. :)
And to be clear, I do agree that Kevin provides value as he trades. This value is what allows his trade partners to walk away feeling happy.
When you get, say, $1M in value (making numbers up), and it is value you were excited about, then it's very easy to miss the fact that (1) you paid $1.2M to get it, and (2) it was financially worth $1.4M to the other guy to make the deal. So while you're all happy because you received $1M in value, the competitive truth is that you left $600K of value on the table (the $200K you actually gave up and the $400K you should have gotten in the deal).
Example: SS trades SP Nobukazu Ikeda (A), and Shin Seiki's 8th round draft pick to Kure for a 2nd round pick.
Ikeda is an interesting pitcher with four pitches and a 94 MPH heater, so Aaron is happy. He also isn't going to have to pay an extra $100K or whatever the bonus difference is between a 2 and a 3. But in the big picture, Ikeda is a third-round pick from the year prior, and he's been hurt so his risk has gone up (perhaps making his net value a 4th rounder? Dunno). Yet, Kure gives Kevin a higher pick for him. A #4 and a #8 for a #2 might sound good to some (and for those who think this way, please do feel free to PM me...I'm ready to deal), but my thought is that it's a slam-dunk deal for the team getting the #2.
In 2013 I drafted Ikeda in the mid 3rd round (pick #29) after he slid down the draft board because of the injury he suffered earlier in the 2013 season, not after the draft. GM's usually want to see their picks develop right away, so I get to take advantage of a discount on him. He is not an a top pitching prospect, but projects as a possible #4-#5 down the road. After rehabilitating him from the injury, his value goes up. It does not go down to that of a #4. Plus there is the cash saved by not having to pay a bonus at all. A serious consideration for a small market team like Kure.
Flash forward to this off season. Aaron decides to change tactics and trade for current minor league players rather than use his draft picks. He makes his 2nd rounder available. That pick is currently #19 but will likely slide to #20 or #21 after Free Agency and compensation picks are doled out. There is a lot of money floating around this off season. I am betting more than 1 team signs a type A or B LRS Free Agent before the draft.
So with those things in mind, the deal could be approximated as:
- SS gets:
Pick #21 in 2015
Kure gets:
Pick #29 in 2014 (who is now worth more than pick #29)
8th Round pick in 2015
$150,000 in cash saved by not having to pay a signing bonus
Either way, debating the merits of a trade is almost as much fun as negotiating one.
