The Most Valuable PEBA Players

[Lions]

Written by Samuel Platt
Sunday, March 30, 2014

Here we are on the cusp of the 2014 season. It’s worth taking stock of the talent around the league. There are many ways to look at who the best players in the PEBA might be. Who was best last year? Who projects to be the best this year? Instead of looking strictly at who the best players are, the list below will attempt to order who the most valuable players are. Many things go into value, and everyone will have their own opinions. Consider this a starting point for disagreement and discussion rather than an attempt to dictate what is and what isn’t.

Obviously, the starting point for such an evaluation is player performance in the past and expected performance moving forward. Age has to be considered; an older player who’s unlikely to be useful for more than a season or two can’t possibly be as valuable as a younger player with similar production expectations. Contract is also important. A player who has signed a huge deal that is impractical to acquire for most teams reduces the amount of interest other teams might have in that player. Some element of value is tied up in what a player is worth in trade.

One thing this list is not is a list of the hottest young prospects. You won’t find any players looking to establish themselves in the PEBA. This is about players who’ve shown they belong already. In short, the idea is simply this: More often than not, a higher-ranked player would not be traded 1-for-1 for a lower-ranked player given their abilities, contracts, and age.

Each of the top 25 players have been ranked and commented upon below. The remainder of the top 50 will also be presented, albeit with a little less information.

One spoiler for you: They may not have placed in the top 5, but Aurora’s roster is littered all over the remainder of the top 50, with several in the top 25. You don’t win 120+ games on a regular basis and not have stars. They just have a plethora of them. One expects that someday they’ll actually go through a rebuild, and what a strange sight that might be. The other thing that was surprising about those players, though, is how many of them have spent significant time on the disabled list each season. Could a fully healthy Aurora team win 130 games? It certainly seems possible.

The List

25. 2B Britt Martin (CST) – 29 – Martin’s a slugging infielder who’s been among the best at his position both defensively and offensively for the past three seasons, earning two trips to the All-Star game in that time. Scouts have never been all that enamored with him and he took some time establishing himself at the PEBA level. Ultimately, performance won out over scouting. Martin will be heading for another year of arbitration this off-season, and it seems likely the Statesmen will try to lock up their #4 hitter to another deal sometime this season.

24. 2B Kevin McNeill (FLA) – 29 – McNeil is a similar type of player to Martin with the exception that he’s been this good for longer. He’s been an All-Star three of the past four seasons, and he’s one of the reasons that Florida consistently is a PEC favorite. The main knock on McNeil is inconsistent batting averages. His 2012 .314 season was 40 points higher than his career averages and coincided with an odd 50-point increase in his BABIP. That said, even when he hits in the .270s, he’s good for power and walks.

23. C Manuel González (NJ) – 34 – He’s the oldest player on the list, but at the moment, he’s still easily the best-hitting catcher in the league. He led the SL in OBP this past year while hitting .324 with 23 home runs. Other catchers struggle to do what González does with the bat. Jeff Cline has started to tail off, and Brock Brett is still working his way toward that level. Prospects like Samuel Kettley and Jason Corbett either haven’t translated their talent to results or are yet to arrive. González doesn’t come cheap at over $17 million this year and $18 million next season, but the Hitmen will get out from under his contract at a time when his free agent status should still net them compensation if he signs elsewhere.

22. RF John Knight (AUR) – 29 – The reigning SL Royal Raker won a tight Royal Raker vote to become the third different Borealis player to win the award in as many years. Tight votes are fairly common in the PEBA, but Knight wasn’t a popular choice in some circles. He has even been referred to as the weakest winner in PEBA history. It’s easy for the less statistically inclined to look at his 21 home runs and wonder what happened. The fact is Knight hit for average, got on base, stole bases, and led the league in runs scored.

21. DH Octávio Pexego (CON) – 31 – Now with his 5th team, El Chupacabra is coming off his worst season of the past four. Translated for the uninitiated, that means he only hit 23 home runs, just barely cleared 100 RBI and 100 runs, and had an OBP under .400. It’s not just that his strikeout rate went up quite a bit, but his isolated power took a big hit. The Nutmeggers are banking on the fact that he’ll bounce back and continue on the career path he had before. They’ve committed a fair amount of money to him, but most analysts pegged his signing as the safest of their big three off-season acquisitions. He should see plenty of pitches to hit with Ronald Lowry batting behind him, but he won’t see much time in the field.

20. C Wilson Berry (AUR) – 29 – Due to his teammates, he may be the least known player in the top 25, but Berry certainly belongs. Just about every good catcher in the PEBA get more press, and there are good reasons for that, but the thing that few of them have on their side are both the track record and the expectation of maintaining that high level of success. Berry simply puts up solid numbers year in and year out. González is the better hitting catcher right now, but Berry’s age and affordability nets him a few higher slots.

19. 3B Barry Murdock (CL) – 28 – The Sandgnats recently signed Murdock to a hefty extension worth about $20 million annually through 2016. Needless to say, free agency isn’t the only way to get a big paycheck. Given his performance the past several seasons, it wouldn’t be too hard to see him signing such a deal on the open market should he have made it there – this is no hometown discount. Murdock is a five-time All-Star, including each of the past four seasons. He’s averaged over 30 home runs a year in that time span and is the second most prolific base stealer in PEBA history.

18. RF Mark Lamb (PS) – 27 – This oxymoronic young Codger is one of the least appreciated stars around the league, but Palm Springs fans sat up and took notice in 2013. After a brief call-up in 2011 and a solid rookie campaign in 2012, Lamb took strides forward this past season. His home run total was down slightly, but that was the sign of a more disciplined hitting approach. Lamb was hitting line drives into the gap that simply didn’t clear the fence, nearly doubling his doubles. He went 28-for-33 on the bases while hitting .315 with 102 walks. Lamb didn’t lead the league in anything but was all over the leaderboards. If Lamb doesn’t start to hit a ton of home runs, he’ll probably remain fairly anonymous among the casual fans and a favorite of the more statistically inclined.

17. SP Félix Ortega (ARL) – 24 – Perhaps the greatest compliment to Ortega is the amount of consternation his trade to Arlington caused in the Featherheads’ front office. Florida’s ex-farmhand now toils for the perennially contending Bureaucrats after Florida had traded him to Omaha, who subsequently shipped him to Arlington. Needless to say, the rest of the IL isn’t happy about it either. Ortega’s 2013 was slightly worse overall than his rookie campaign in 2012, but Arlington fans can be encouraged by his skyrocketing K:BB ratio, which went from 2.98 to 7.16 while adding 50 IP on the year. He’s in his final pre-arbitration year and it would be surprising if the Bureaucrats didn’t lock him up long before the arbiters can have their say.

16. 2B Steve McDonald (AUR) – 27 – If you had to pick a prototypical leadoff hitter, sweet-swingin’ Steve might very well be it. He has almost no power to speak of, but he’s got a tremendous eye and a smooth stroke that results in a high average/OBP combination ideally suited to the top of the order. He has great speed and instincts on the bases, too. In their embarrassment of riches, Aurora has a couple of guys who can fill that role, so McDonald is expected to bat second again this year.

15. RF Jason Guillén (ARL) – 26 – At the age of 24, in his first full season in the PEBA, Guillén bashed his way to the Royal Raker. This past season, things looked different. His home run total was way down and he didn’t walk as much. He was still a very valuable hitter, though. Guillén’s BABIP in each of his PEBA seasons has been no cause for excitement. In fact, his BABIP was just .250 in his Royal Raker season. It goes to show how a lot of walks and home runs equal big production even when the rest of your game is pretty flat. At this point, it seems unlikely that Guillén has the contact ability to be a regular Royal Raker contender, but he’s still a very good player. He’ll be up for arbitration for the first time this winter.

14. 2B Joel Swedlove (KAL) – 27 – Despite Swedlove’s lanky frame, he generates a lot of power and isn’t at all bad defensively up the middle. The Badgers don’t really have any other players that you readily get excited about, and the overall strength of the team leaves Swedlove out of the discussion amongst less knowledgeable fans. But Badger fans are rabid in their devotion. He’ll be looking for a raise in arbitration from his current $5.6 million deal.

13. 1B Sok-man Yi (CL) – 29 – When you talk about a hitting machine, Yi is it. He’s been extraordinarily consistent, posting triple-century numbers each of the past three seasons (100+ RBI, 100+ R, 100+ BB). This all came after winning the SL Wunderkind Award in 2010. His career .985 OPS is second only to Pat Lilly. From a defensive standpoint, Yi is most commonly referred to as a DH type but frequently gets used at first base. His contract isn’t expensive by free agent standards but isn’t exactly cheap, either.

12. SP Kijuro Kojima (AUR) – 29 – Signed to a team-friendly deal through next season, Kojima has posted an ERA under 3.00 in five of the past six seasons. He’s not flashy in any way; he just gets the job. Kojima has never finished higher than third in Golden Arm voting – he reached that mar for the first time in 2013 – but his 119 victories are more than any other pitcher.

11. SP Bill Bradley (AUR) – 26 – The first pick of the 2009 draft, Bradley has lived up to the expectations. He threw a perfect game in the minors in 2010 and no-hit the playoff-bound Sandgnats this past season. His 324 strikeouts in 2012 are 30 more than any other pitcher has recorded in a single season. The one knock on Bradley has been his durability. He seems to have a number of nagging injuries each year, and he missed the post-season after suffering a partially torn labrum in September. Bradley took the Borealis to arbitration this past winter, and it’ll be interesting to see if the team locks him up long-term or balances the risk of a more serious injury with potential arbitration raises.

10. 3B Ronald Lowry (CON) – 26 – Some may knock Lowry slightly as he’s moved from shortstop to third base to make room for George Riley, but it’s also a positive that he’s the type of player who can play both positions well enough to hold a starting spot even if he’s merely average with the bat. He was third in the PEBA in PA/HR last year, but his totals were a bit low due to an early-season injury. Connecticut fans are drooling over what a fully healthy Lowry might do with an OBP-machine like Riley in front of him, but it’s a long road from dream to reality. He’s also in his final year of pre-arbitration, and the team will have to start paying accordingly next year.

9. LF Cory Pierce (AUR) – 28 – Pierce is one of those players that drives fans nuts. When he’s in the lineup, he’s a line drive machine – everything is hit on a rope. But he’s had problems staying healthy. He swings at everything and he makes contact, which is what resulted in a .385 average in 2012 that was good enough to earn Royal Raker honors despite playing in just 117 games (one fewer than Mark Richardson’s 118-game Royal Raker campaign in 2011). Think about that: He missed 45 team games, nearly a third of the season, and he was still considered the best batter in the league! So, how’d he do in 2013? Playing in just 122 games, he was a runner-up in the Royal Raker voting. Like Richardson, he’d probably be second or third on this list if he were playing fully healthy seasons.

8. SS Mark Richardson (AUR) – 30 – Richardson’s career can be split into two phases: the Featherhead years and the injury years. That’s not entirely fair – his Royal Raker award in 2011 came during those injury years – but there was something about the trade to Aurora that has seen Ice Cold applying ice packs on a regular basis. Richardson’s a devastating hitter who crowds the plate and likes to swing at everything. His 40 walks a year are more a testament to pitcher fear than his desire to work the corners. General dislike amongst his opponents leaves him in the top 10 in being hit by pitches on an annual basis despite averaging less than 120 games a season the past three years. Richardson’s got a tremendously team-friendly contract that was signed before the league’s escalator clause was put into the CBA. He’s under contract through 2016 and will be paid progressively less each of the next three years.

7. SP Armando Gallegos (FAR) – 30 – It’s hard to believe that Gallegos made the All-Star team for the first time last year, but that’s the case. The Dinosaurs’ ace is a workhorse who has posted back-to-back 200 IP, 250 K seasons with an ERA under 3.00 (the seven players who’ve attained that in a season are a who’s who of great starters). Not only is he very good, but his contract is so team-friendly that it’s hard to see any reason for Fargo to move him even if he declines a bit. He’s signed through 2017 and won’t make more than $4.5 million in any of those years.

6. SP Cedric Mosley (FLA) – 32 – Mosley finally won the Golden Arm award that the Florida front office thought he could when they acquired him from New Jersey and put him in the rotation. At the time, he was second in career saves, but the Featherheads saw his pitch arsenal and thought he’d make it as a starter. It turned out to be a brilliant move. They’ve since locked him down to a reasonable contract extension that’ll likely be worth it even if he’s forced back to the pen as he gets older. His 14 losses the past three seasons are the fewest among qualifiers.

Interlude

Anytime you put together the top X of anything, you’re working from a list of more than X. In this case, we’re working from a group of players much larger than the 25 that appear on this list. Obviously, that leaves plenty of room for consternation and accusation around the guys that get left out. Surely, someone’s annoyed that their unsung hero didn’t crack the list. Hey, if they were in the top 25, they wouldn’t be unsung anymore, would they? Alternately, some superstars are notably absent. As stated at the top of this article, some of the older superstars and players with unmovable contracts aren’t in the top 25. No Conan. No Rival. That said, many of those guys were strongly considered for this list. Here, then, are the next 25 players that could’ve made the list, presented in alphabetical order.

LF Chris Allen (CST) – He’s increased his home run output in each of his four PEBA seasons since his debut in 2009.
SP Pedro Barrón (CON) – Age and contract are too large to make the list, but he’s awfully good.
C Brock Brett (FLA) – Missing the All-Star game caused some to miss what a good season 2013 was for him.
SP Chandler Davis (FAR) – 2012 hiccup keeps him from being a sure thing.
1B Al Edwards (AUR) – Another season like 2013 and staying at third would likely get Edwards on the list. He’ll start out the year as the Borealis’ starting first baseman due to Aurora’s embarrassment of riches, but can play anywhere on the infield if needed.
1B Ramón Flores (FAR) – He’s 34 and making over $23 million a year, 2nd only to Pat Lilly. It’s a difficult contract to justify, but he’s not doing too poorly at it.
CF Orlando Germán (LON) – Underground fans really want an answer as to whether or not he’ll return to the form of a few years ago. From an individual standpoint, easily the most disappointing player of 2013.
CF En-guo Guao (AUR) – Centerfield may be the weakest position in the league, and it’s incredibly tempting to put him in the 24- or 25-slot based just on his Wunderkind Year. He’ll have plenty of chance to make it later.
1B Carlos Guerera (BAK) – A superb young hitter who gets overshadowed by some of the big boppers at his position.
2B Bud Hoffmann (ARL) – Hoffman represents the upper end of the age spectrum at second base, a position of quality offense around the league.
C Pat Holman (DUL) – Looking to bounce back from a down year, Holman kind of gets forgotten in northern Minnesota.
1B Narahiko Imada (OMA) – It’s hard to leave someone like Imada out of the top 25, but there has to be a cutoff somewhere.
CF Dan Jamison (FLA) – Speedy Dan led the league in stolen bases the past two seasons, but did you know he’s amongst the leaders in fewest strikeouts? Last year, he struck out just 29 times in 723 PA.
RF Jason Kirkland (MAN) – The Maulers expect their new masher to fit right in, and he’ll enjoy the short right field porch.
SP Keitaro Kodo (FLA) – The Featherheads got what everyone else wants from the posting process: a star who handled the transition to the States flawlessly.
3B Jean-Pierre LaPierre (CST) – He busted out to lead the league in hits and average as a 23-year-old in 2013.
RF Pat Lilly (BAK) – Back where he belongs, Lilly’s getting paid more than anyone to continue what he’s always done.
SP Víctor Matos (CST) – Matos will test GM constraint next winter when he hits free agency as a 36-going-on-37-year-old. Still one of the best pitchers in the league.
SP Conan McCullough (CST) – His contract is unmovable, but the Statesmen probably weren’t worried about that when they offered it.
LF Yoshino Miyata (FLA) – Miyata was originally in the top 25 but got dumped due to his contract. He’s making $20 million and will be a free agent at the end of the year.
RF Eduardo Molina (CL) – An injury history and general distaste for watching pitches go by prevents Molina from being an elite hitter, but he’s very good.
1B Tsumemasa Morimoto (FLA) – What could this guy do with a higher contact rate? Hit 60 home runs?
CL Raúl Pinto (FAR) – Best closer is tough to define, but Pinto has a strong claim.
SS George Riley (CON) – Age hasn’t slowed Riley down yet, and his lack of power shouldn’t be a big issue at Constitution Field.
SP Bryan Stewart (CL) – It seems like a long time ago that Stewart was the best pitcher in the league. For those who’ve ignored him on the All-Star ballot, he’s still superb.
And now, back to your regularly scheduled programming…

The Top 5

5. SP Dean O'Monahan (CST) – 30 – The PEBA’s second-winningest pitcher, O’Monahan’s 19-7, 3.00 ERA 2013 was a down year for him, his 1.00 WHIP a disappointment. That’s the kind of pitcher you’re talking about; the kind of pitcher that earns the nickname “Fate”. The Statesmen signed their ace to a long-term extension that will keep him in South Carolina for what could be the remainder of his career. Despite the escalating annual value, it’s a tremendous bargain given the going rate of elite starters on the free agent market.

4. SP Manuel Corona (GLO) – 24 – When you ask scouts about “The Mayor”, you hear a lot of talk about how he’s not even close to the pitcher he could be yet. This about a guy who finished fourth in IL Golden Arm voting this past season. Corona led the IL with 253 strikeouts as he moved forward in his efforts to establish himself as one of the premier pitchers in the PEBA. He’s in his final pre-arbitration year and the Fishermen’s new management will have to figure out if they’re going to lock him up, see what the arbiters think, or even trade him. Admittedly, he doesn’t have quite the track record of some of the guys behind him on this list, but that potential continues to turn heads.

3. LF Luis Torres (FLA) – 24 – Florida’s slugging left fielder led the IL in runs, RBI and walks in 2013. He also became just the fifth player to hit 40 HR and 40 2B in the same season. For all his efforts, the Featherheads rewarded him with a buyout of his remaining arbitration years that pays him well ($12 million annually) and gives the team certainty around a player who otherwise would’ve held his arbitration season hostage. There’s a lot of tremendous baseball ahead of him.

2. 1B Rob Raines (ARL) – 28 – The “Raining” IL Royal Raker became just the third player ever to post a 100 VORP season, and his stock couldn’t possibly be higher. He’s signed to a team-friendly contract that will keep him in Arlington for the next three seasons without going over $10 million in annual base pay. However, there are some questions that he’ll have to answer in 2014. His tremendous .341 average last year was 50 points higher than his previous high. An increase in his walk rate helped, but he also posted a .360 BABIP, which was about 50 points higher than 2012. If that increase is representative of his ability to drive the ball hard, he truly is the most dangerous hitter in the PEBA right now.

1. SP Markus Hancock (BAK) – 28 – The deal that sent Hancock to Bakersfield has been well documented, so I’m not going to rehash it here. Hancock is the type of pitcher that is unquestioned in his superior talent. He lost his streak of three-straight Golden Arm awards this past season, but sometimes the numbers just don’t quite work out. Now that he’s in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and has been locked up at a reasonable rate, Bears fans can rest easy in the knowledge that once every five days, they’ve got a better chance of winning than any other team. One could easily argue that with the contract signed, he’s even more valuable now than when Bakersfield sent 15 players to Tempe to land him.

Samuel Platt covers the Nutmeggers for the Connecticut Post

[Bill]

Great stuff as usual Frank. I always find it hard to do lists like this because I get wishy-washy on the value of different parts of a player's performance (OBP v. defense v. SB). I also find it very telling that guys like Lilly and Conan and even Guao get left out - that means there are a lot of good players in this league.

This was also a poignant illustration of the road still to climb in Duluth. One top 50 player - and he didn't play like it last year and is hurt this year. Sometimes I forget stuff like this.

[Tyler]

West Virginia is proud to have no players make this list.

Wait, is "proud" the right word?

[klewis]

West Virginia is proud to have no players make this list.

Wait, is "proud" the right word?

I would say Ayers, Harmon or Suarez have a good shot of cracking this list one day.

[Jason]

This is a GREAT, GREAT article. It gives everyone an opportunity to learn some of the top talent in both leagues.

I have to respectively disagree that Narahiko Imada is not in the top 25 though. I think he should be. He has been consistently fantastic since 2007, near the tops in HR, RBI, and SLG over the last 7 seasons. That said, everyone on this list is deserving, so I guess who is on and who just missed is quite subjective.

I would also have to say that I was surprised Conan misses the list as well. Regardless of age, contract, and what he may or may not do moving forward, he is arguably the most dominant pitcher PEBA has ever seen. If the league were to shut down today, I might even call him the best pithcer in history.

Jut my .02 - I still love this article. Even after 2.5 seasons, I still don't know all the guys on this list! Great work!

[Borealis]

We loved this as well - it's always great to hear other peoples ideas about players.

I'd have to agree with the assessment of John Knights RR: a great player, but not even MVP on his own team last year. We voted Al Edwards.

[Reg]

Ollie Morris should have definitely gotten a mention, he may be getting old, but he is only a year older than Lilly, and he has less history of getting injured, plus he can play 3B adequately, and he is making less than 20 mil a year....Morris has probably been one of the most under the radar players, though still one of the best.....

[Lions]

I tend to like articles like this because of the discussion they generate. There are a lot of players that got left off the list who I think are great candidates for next year. I did make a point of looking at every team's rosters to try to find guys I thought were viable candidates (yes, I even reviewed the top players from Yuma). I felt like the top 5 guys were strong enough I didn't review them too much, but beyond that it was really hard deciding where to put players. Especially as you get to the tail end of the list. Players in the 10-15 range, well move them up or down a slot and no one seems to mind too much. Aurora SP's Bradley and Kojima were flipped repeatedly and ranked in various places. Do that to the guys ranked 20-30 and now you've got players jumping on or off the list. There are a lot of guys in the 26-50 group that were originally in the top 25 and got bumped for one reason or another. I also took into consideration positional issues. I solid hitting catcher may be ranked ahead of a better hitting first baseman. There certainly are some personal opinions about players that are reflected in the rankings, too.

I hope to do this annually so we can kind of get a sense of some history about what the general opinion is on various players in PEBA history.

Here are some fun stats:
3 teams with more than four players in the top 50: AUR, FLA, CST
8 teams with more than one player
8 teams with exactly one player
8 teams with no representatives
Most by Position: 14 SP's, 8 1B's, 6 RF's
Fewest by Position: 2 SS's, 3 3B's, and 3 CF's

You don't have to have a lot of superstars on the list to make the postseason. There are a lot of high quality younger players that got left off the list because of inconsistency, too little experience, or simply not yet living up to expectations. I fully expect those guys to take slots from the older guys on an annual basis.

Ultimately, this project was inspired by this article from last summer.

[klewis]

Along with spurring discussion, these articles are fun to look back at a few seasons from now. Case in example:

The Best Under-25 Players: Part I - Alejandro Ortega and his injuries; José Chávez who?
The Best Under-25 Players: Part II - RIP Chris Saunders, Jim White
The Best Under-25 Players: Part III - RIP George Thompson; Orlando Germán needs a rebound season
Sudden Impact (Part 1 of 2) - Who knew what Mosley would have brought to Florida
Sudden Impact (Part 2 of 2) - Nelly right on Pedro Silva?