The Edinburgh News
09-11-2028
From the blue grass of Kentucky to the beaches of San Juan to the lochs of Scotland, there’s only one thing on the minds of baseball fans these days: the Wild Card free-for-all in the Imperial League.
For weeks now, seven teams have been within a handful of games of each other as the race has ebbed and flowed. So now, with just about three weeks left in the season, have things clarified at all?
Just the tiniest of bits. For now, at least, it appears that Scotland has separated itself from the pack, grabbing a 9-game lead for the first Wild Card spot over Kentucky.
And that’s about all the clarity you’re going to get.
The Thoroughbreds have slipped into the second Wild Card spot, holding a one-game advantage over Arlington, three over San Juan, four over Hartford, five over New Orleans, and seven over London.
In the week ahead, the Trendsetters could well hold the key to the race, as they host both Kentucky and Arlington for three-game sets at New Frontier Park.
West Virginia, which sits comfortably atop the Seaboard Division, will have a say, too. The Alleghenies travel to Arlington for three games, then host the Scottish for three.
The Vegas Connection
Lets take a quick look at the updated odds for the race out of Las Vegas:
• Scotland – odds for playoffs: 100 percent (0.4% to win division, 99.6% to take a wild card spot.
• Arlington – odds for playoffs: 50.2 percent (0.0% to win division, 50.2% to win a wild card.
• Kentucky – odds for playoffs: 41.3 percent (0.8% to win division, 41.3% to win a wild card.
• San Juan – odds for playoffs: 6.6 percent (0.0% to win division, 6.6% to win a wild card.
• Hartford – odds for playoffs: 2.3 percent (0.0% to win division, 2.3% to win a wild card.
• New Orleans – odds for playoffs: 0.6 percent (0.1% to win division, 0.6% to win a wild card. (Numbers don’t add up to 0.7% due to rounding).
• London – odds for playoffs: 0.3 percent (0.0% to win division, 0.3% to win a wild card.
The big gainers from the last time we checked in (way back in Week 21) were Kentucky, which went from a 12.7% chance to 41.3%, and Arlington, which went from 36.3% to 50.2.
Hartford, which has struggled through August and September with a losing record, dropped precipitously in the Vegas forecasts: from 29.2% to 2.3%.
Yikes.
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
Before we head out in search of a good bottle of something interesting to take the edge off our nerves, let’s take a quick look at a couple of key statistical rankings for our contenders.
First, run differential – how many more runs does a team score than it lets score? Here’s how they rank: 1. Scotland, +81; 2. Kentucky, +33; 3. Arlington, +24; 4. San Juan, -28; 5. New Orleans, -33; 6. Hartford, -39; 7. London, -39.
Next, runs scored per game: 1. Scotland, 4.4; 2. Kentucky, 4.2; 3. Hartford, 4.0; 4. New Orleans, 3.9; 5. Arlington, 3.9; 6. San Juan, 3.7; 7. London, 3.3.
Next, runs allowed per game: 1. London, 3.6; 2. Arlington, 3.7; 3. Scotland, 3.9; 4. San Juan, 3.9; 5. Kentucky, 4.0; 6. New Orleans, 4.1; 7. Hartford, 4.2.
What do these numbers tell us? First, they tell us that Scotland, Kentucky and Arlington appear to be the class of this field, with at least some balance between pitching and hitting. They also expose the problem with Hartford: its run production is slightly about the league average of 3.9, but its pitching has let it down. It allows runs to score at a rate well above the league average of, again, 3.9.
What does Pythagoras know, anyway?
I know, I know. I said we were almost out of here, but let’s look at a final set of numbers for one last clue: the Pythagorean win projections for each team. Some are playing a game or two better than projections, some a bit worse.
If those teams drift back to their predicted records, it’s possible the game or two difference in the standings could decide who moves to the post-season and who stays home.
So, what do we see? Scotland, San Juan, and Hartford are all sitting at +2, meaning they have two wins more than expected. In the case of Scotland, two games wouldn’t necessarily mean much – but they could easily drop both Hartford and San Juan out of contention.
Arlington and Kentucky, meanwhile, are sitting at -2, which means both could reasonably improve their records by a couple of games. And that would be huge for either team, clearly. London is at -1, which means to could logically improve by a game – although it’s going to need a lot more than that to get over the top.
How about New Orleans? The Trendsetters are right where Pythagoras said they’d be.
So, bottom line? Scotland’s chances at the post season look pretty good, while Kentucky and Arlington look like the prime contenders for the second spot.
But don’t be too surprised if nothing goes to form.
After all, it’s baseball.
Where They Stand
On the morning of Sept. 11, the Trans Atlantic Division standings were: 1) Havana, 89-54, .622 --; 2) Scotland, 82-61, .573, 7 GB; San Juan, 70-73, .490, 19 GB; London, 66-77, .462, 23 GB.
On the morning of Sept. 11, the Imperial League Wild Card standings were: Scotland, 82-61, .573, +9; Kentucky, 73-70, .510, --; Arlington, 72-71, .503, 1 GB; San Juan, 70-73, .490, 3 GB; Hartford, 69-74, .483, 4 GB; New Orleans, 68-75, .476, 5 GB; London, 66-77, .462, 7 GB.
See you next time!
